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Moon Peak Production Group

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🌎 Global and Macro Environment

This Real Estate Investment Report provides an outlook on global and US commercial real estate (CRE) trends, sector performance, and investment strategies as of Q4 2025.

The market is currently in a phase of recovery and stabilization, with investor caution beginning to ease as interest rate uncertainty moderates and asset values find a floor. 

Returns are increasingly driven by income durability rather than pure capital appreciation.

Interest Rates & Valuation: While borrowing costs remain elevated, there is an expectation for a more supportive debt backdrop, with the US Federal Reserve forecast to begin easing policy over the next year. High capital (cap) rates and financing costs continue to place downward pressure on asset values, forcing owners to confront loan maturities.

Liquidity Improvement: Transaction volumes are showing early signs of recovery from their lows in 2024. As sellers and buyers bridge the pricing gap, liquidity is expected to improve, creating opportunities for well-capitalized investors, including those pursuing discounted or distressed assets.

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